Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.359769 2.485932 2.621428 2.778942 2.958578 3.159041 3.402598
2025-04-06 2.137231 2.300478 2.484681 2.711491 2.988679 3.324479 3.776344
2025-04-13 1.996839 2.180462 2.394771 2.669789 3.024121 3.483352 4.161204
2025-04-20 1.928145 2.132442 2.378262 2.706229 3.151454 3.771228 4.790306
2025-04-27 1.891382 2.116639 2.395595 2.782236 3.336196 4.170899 5.740618
2025-05-04 1.831855 2.066365 2.362539 2.784216 3.412847 4.421002 6.556870
2025-05-11 1.781175 2.022960 2.333577 2.786529 3.487013 4.681092 7.565600
2025-05-18 1.713239 1.952974 2.263826 2.723162 3.448485 4.730606 8.107702
2025-05-25 1.670248 1.913090 2.231812 2.711126 3.489741 4.938580 9.310504
2025-06-01 1.629524 1.873976 2.198126 2.693043 3.517373 5.125890 10.729379
2025-06-08 1.590885 1.835776 2.163360 2.670086 3.532892 5.291572 12.424824
2025-06-15 1.573630 1.825344 2.166621 2.705426 3.655954 5.742469 17.458810
2025-06-22 1.528827 1.776787 2.114661 2.652213 3.613564 5.788012 20.242911
2025-06-29 1.484631 1.727760 2.060223 2.592062 3.552568 5.773510 22.852981
2025-07-06 1.449725 1.690393 2.021153 2.554439 3.531377 5.865751 29.341723
2025-07-13 1.437030 1.683135 2.025388 2.587581 3.653708 6.424943 175.833503
2025-07-20 1.434499 1.689731 2.050055 2.656443 3.861319 7.411191 NaN
2025-07-27 1.414845 1.671373 2.036314 2.658238 3.925308 7.944428 NaN
2025-08-03 1.396426 1.654107 2.023374 2.660331 3.990432 8.552523 NaN
2025-08-10 1.364611 1.616812 1.978463 2.602959 3.909968 8.426170 NaN
2025-08-17 1.345430 1.597158 1.960007 2.592045 3.939026 8.890204 NaN
2025-08-24 1.325915 1.576486 1.939218 2.575637 3.952866 9.302689 NaN
2025-08-31 1.306298 1.555167 1.916698 2.554789 3.953341 9.655082 NaN